Application of probabilistic method in reserve calculation for the CLFS oilfield project

Li Jiemei; Tan Xuequn; Xu Huaming; Zhang Peng

doi:10.11743/ogg20120617

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Application of probabilistic method in reserve calculation for the CLFS oilfield project
Vol. 33, Issue 6, Pages: 944-950(2012)
Online First：28 December 2012，

Published：2012
DOI： 10.11743/ogg20120617
稿件说明：

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DOI：

Li Jiemei, Tan Xuequn, Xu Huaming, et al. Application of probabilistic method in reserve calculation for the CLFS oilfield project[J]. 2012, 33(6): 944-950. DOI： 10.11743/ogg20120617.

摘要

采用蒙特卡洛模型进行储量计算

承认储量参数具有不确定性。鉴于各地质参数本身的随机性特点

将其视为以不同概率在实数域上随机取值的随机变量

较好地掌握参数的取值范围。同时

结合CLFS项目储量计算实例

按照SPE标准

详细分析了具有较大不确定性参数的取值方法

包括含油面积、孔隙度、有效厚度、饱和度和原油体积系数等多个储量参数。确定了各个参数的取值范围

求出了各个参数的P10

P50和P90值。最终的储量结果是一个储量范围

涵盖了从保守到乐观的估值范围

从而更准确地把握了油田储量状况

为油田的勘探开发决策提供了更可靠的依据

降低了油气勘探开发过程中决策的风险。

Abstract

The Monte Carlo simulation was applied to reserve calculations to honor the uncertainties of reserve parameters.As geologic parameters themselves are random in nature

they are treated as stochastic variables that randomly choose values in real number domain with different probabilities.Taking reserve calculation of the CLFS project as an example

suitable valuing methods were selected for parameters with uncertainties in accordance with the SPEC standards.These parameters include oil-bearing areas

porosity

effective thickness

saturation and crude volume coefficient.The value ranges of each parameter were determined and their values at P10

P50 and P90 were calculated.The final calculation result is just a range of reserves

covering the full value ranges from conservative to optimistic.By doing so

we could master the overall situation concerning the reserve of the oilfield so as to provide more reliable bases for exploration and development strategies and reduce decision-making risks.