概率法储量计算在CLFS项目中的应用

doi:10.11743/ogg20120617

Abstract

Abstract:

The Monte Carlo simulation was applied to reserve calculations to honor the uncertainties of reserve parameters.As geologic parameters themselves are random in nature,they are treated as stochastic variables that randomly choose values in real number domain with different probabilities.Taking reserve calculation of the CLFS project as an example,suitable valuing methods were selected for parameters with uncertainties in accordance with the SPEC standards.These parameters include oil-bearing areas,porosity,effective thickness,saturation and crude volume coefficient.The value ranges of each parameter were determined and their values at P10,P50 and P90 were calculated.The final calculation result is just a range of reserves,covering the full value ranges from conservative to optimistic.By doing so,we could master the overall situation concerning the reserve of the oilfield so as to provide more reliable bases for exploration and development strategies and reduce decision-making risks.

Key words: probability distribution function, deterministic method, probabilistic method, CLFS project, reserve calculation

CLC Number:

TE155

Li Jiemei, Tan Xuequn, Xu Huaming, Zhang Peng. Application of probabilistic method in reserve calculation for the CLFS oilfield project[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2012, 33(6): 944-950.

References

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Application of probabilistic method in reserve calculation for the CLFS oilfield project

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