关于中国碳中和与能源转型实现路径的思考

doi:10.11743/ogg20240301

Abstract

Abstract:

Responding to climate change represents a tremendous challenge to the community with a shared future for mankind. China has committed itself to achieving carbon peaking goal by 2030 and carbon neutrality goal by 2060. The dual carbon goals are not only China’s solemn commitments to the world as a responsible power but also key strategic objectives of the systematic socio-economic reforms， transition， and development of the country. Energy plays a crucial role in reaching carbon neutrality. Given China’s particular situation featuring a high proportion of fossil energy and rapidly increasing rigid demand of energy， this study proposes a pathway for China’s energy transition. In this aspect energy transition is guided initially by government policies and driven by market forces in the long term while focusing on both carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration， capture， utilization and storage. Carbon pricing， through carbon taxes and emissions trading， lies at the core of the pathway， with the future proportion of fossil energy in the primary energy mix and the level of end-use electrification serving as critical indicators. Specifically， it is recommended to fully leverage government guidance and market dominance to facilitate energy transition and reach carbon neutrality in China， and there is a vital need to vigorously develop core technologies for both carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration， capture， utilization and storage. Furthermore， it is necessary to effectively manage relationships of economic development with carbon neutrality and energy security， between national emission reduction targets and those of all provinces， cities， and enterprises， between traditional fossil energy companies and emerging new energy enterprises， between short-term actions and long-term goals regarding carbon emission reduction， and the coordinated progress on carbon emission reduction for China and the other countries across the world.

Key words: pathway optimization, implementation pathway, energy transition, carbon neutrality, China

CLC Number:

TE02

Zhijun JIN, Chuan ZHANG, Xiaofeng WANG, Xiang LI. A pathway to China’s energy transition in a carbon neutrality vision[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2024, 45(3): 593-599.

Figures/Tables 3

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

References 16

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	能源结构占比/%
	2020年	2050年
能源类型	现实情景	参考情景	快速电气化情景	慢速电气化情景	可再生能源受限情景	100 %可再生能源情景
石油	38.66	38.89	15.13	21.21	15.47	0.01
天然气	33.34	39.31	9.98	10.13	20.76	0.03
煤炭	12.41	4.91	0.42	0.21	0.08	0.00
核能	8.86	4.50	7.94	7.61	32.43	0.00
水能	1.08	1.11	1.53	1.27	1.22	1.46
地热能	0.05	0.06	0.08	0.06	0.61	0.15
生物质能	3.59	3.64	17.58	14.61	14.00	16.79
太阳能	0.52	1.97	16.77	13.96	5.65	28.55
风能	1.49	5.61	30.57	30.94	9.78	53.01
化石能源合计	84.41	83.11	25.53	31.55	36.31	0.04
非化石能源合计	15.59	16.89	74.47	68.45	63.69	99.96

	2020年	2050年
合计	0.46	0.59	1.41	1.71	1.30	1.98
投资项目	现实情景	参考情景	快速电气化情景	慢速电气化情景	可再生能源受限情景	100 %可再生能源情景
可再生能源电厂	0.04	0.08	0.33	0.37	0.16	0.61
其他，包括天然气碳捕集与封存（CCS）发电	0.13	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.11	0.09
石油产品运输	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.01	0	0
核能电厂	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.15	0
天然气基础设施	0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03
天然气和电力制氢、合成燃料	0	0	0.02	0.08	0.02	0.21
电网电池	0.01	0	0.46	0.01	0.01	0.02
电力传输与分配	0.16	0.29	0.28	0.39	0.41	0.53
增量末端使用投资	0	0	0.03	0.23	0.29	0.28
CO₂运输/储存和直接空气捕获	0	0	0	0.39	0.06	0.06
生物转化工厂	0.01	0.01	0.11	0.09	0.06	0.15

	能源消耗量/（10¹² kJ）
能源消耗类型	2020年	2050年
能源消耗类型	现实情景	参考情景	快速电气化情景	慢速电气化情景	可再生能源受限情景	100 %可再生能源情景
电能	14 009	17 663	25 202	21 041	25 202	25 202
氢能	897	939	3 550	2 643	3 550	3 550
蒸汽	4 661	5 234	5 161	5 173	5 161	5 161
管道天然气	13 364	12 724	3 017	6 509	3 017	3 017
管道天然气原料	150	321	321	321	321	321
汽油	17 925	13 821	743	5 843	743	743
柴油	8 536	8 205	991	3 826	991	991
喷气燃料	3 072	4 039	2 734	2 734	2 734	2 734
液化石油气	848	919	208	499	208	208
液化石油气原料	3 096	4 400	4 400	4 400	4 400	4 400
其他石油	5 006	5 810	3 338	3 955	3 338	3 338
石油化工原料	769	1 433	1 433	1 433	1 433	1 433
生物质和废弃物	664	716	698	690	698	698
煤炭和焦煤	920	1 031	234	264	234	234

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A pathway to China’s energy transition in a carbon neutrality vision

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