致密油藏储量升级潜力不确定性评价方法及应用

doi:10.11743/ogg20210320

Abstract

Abstract:

Reserves upgrade potential assessment of continental tight oil reservoirs in China encounters a series of problems such as high reservoir heterogeneity, great uncertainties caused by limited geological understanding of certain stages, and marked differences between static and dynamic evaluation results.All these are difficult to be dealt with conventional deterministic methods.Therefore, a systematic non-determinstic reserves upgrade potential assessment method was proposed.The method is an improved version in terms of the following three aspects.Firstly, with uncertainties considered, the reserves with upgrading potential are quantitatively determined under diverse reliabilities.Secondly, a mutual correction and comprehensive evaluation of the static and dynamic methods is made possible by applying the posteriori probability theory.Thirdly, reserves upgrade probabilities and scales are quantitatively evaluated based on probability method by introducing the concept of upgrade probability.The reserves upgrade probability and scale under different oil prices and engineering technology conditions were clearly seen when applying the method to the possibility assessment of upgrading 'controlled reserves' to a higher reserves category for tight oil reservoirs in the Chang 8 Member of Well Block A, Ordos Basin.This shows that the method could be of effective technical support to tight oil reserves upgrade evaluation and exploration target optimization in China.

Key words: reserves upgrade scale, reserves upgrade probability, non-deterministic assessment method, posteriori probability distribution, tight oil reservoir

CLC Number:

TE155

Jun Li. Non-deterministic method for tight oil reserves upgrade potential assessment and its application[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2021, 42(3): 755-764.

Figures/Tables 13

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References 20

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产能分类	技术可采储量范围/t	生产井		储量		平均单井EUR/(10⁴t)
产能分类	技术可采储量范围/t	井数/口	比例/%	技术可采储量/t	比例/%	平均单井EUR/(10⁴t)
低产井	0~1 000	22	49	7 855	8	357
中产井	1 000~3 000	11	24	19 620	18	1 784
高产井	>3 000	12	27	79 245	74	6 604
合计		45	100	106 720	100	2 372

	井号	水平段长/m	初期月产/t	可采储量/t	千米水平段可采储量/t
A1井区	A1P30	1 000	352	6 247	6 247
	A1P20	1 088	221	3 014	2 770
	A1P32	535	231	1 595	2 981
	A1P15	800	106	1 137	1 421
	A1P28	650	46	287	442
A2井区	A2P10	1 042	9	240	230
	A2P23	988	28	449	454
	A2P25	1 001	64	2 548	2 545
	A2P1	653	51	650	995
	A2P5	960	16	237	247
	A2P4	1 000	41	389	389
	A2P35	1 001	30	203	203

井名	A2P10D	A2P23D	A2P25D	A107	ZT4	P10取值	P90取值
有效厚度/m	12.3	14.1	16.4	14.1	14.1	16	12
孔隙度/%	11.2	12.3	14.5	10	10.7	14	10
含油饱和度/%	42.1	51.2	53.2	46.8	41.5	53	40

	完井方式	压裂段数	压裂簇数/(簇·段^-1)	液量/(m·段^-1)	砂量/t	排量/(m·min^-1)	压裂改造体积/(10⁴ m²·段^-1)	压裂液
新技术	套管	20~25	4~6	1 000~1 500	300~500	10~14	20~40	滑溜水，伤害率 < 20%
原技术	裸眼/套管	8~10	单簇	150~250	30~70	2~4.5	2~6	瓜胶，伤害率29.8%

油价/美元	经济极限可采储量/t	升级概率
40	12 941	0.01
50	7 498	0.37
60	5 199	0.80
70	4 096	0.94
80	3 505	0.98
90	3 121	0.99
100	2 826	0.99

Non-deterministic method for tight oil reserves upgrade potential assessment and its application

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