基于多元回归分析的致密油可采资源评价方法

doi:10.11743/ogg20180621

Abstract

Abstract: It is hard to reliablely estimate recoverable resources of tight oil by means of conventional resource evaluation methods due to the abnormal features of unconventional oil and gas accumulation.Through the study of the productive tight oil play in the B₁₂ interval of Wolfcamp Formation in the Permian Basin of North America,we proposed a new me- thod for evaluating recoverable tight oil resources in the Permian Basin based on multiple regression analysis.In line with the correlation between the geological parameters of pay zones and the actual production of the tight oil play,a model for evaluating recoverable tight oil was established;then,the geological parameters and their corresponding influence coefficients were determined by correlation and multiple regression analyses,so as to get the calculation model for recoverable tight oil abundance in the study area.Finally,the volume of recoverable tight oil in the study area was worked out.After the detailed analysis of SJ area in the Permian Basin,the geological factors affecting the recovery of tight oil can be graded in terms of significance as follows: brittle mineral content,maturity,porosity and oil saturation,with the degree of significance decreasing from the beginning.Meanwhile,the correlation coefficient between the predicted yield by the model and the practical yield reaches 0.7885,signifying the reliability of the model,and the total volume of recoverable tight oil is 46.15 million tons.Since the tight oil evaluation model based on multiple regression corresponds directly with the production,after setting the constraints on production,we can also get to know that the recoverable volumes of Type Ⅰ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ tight oil are 0.44,24.83 and 18.69 million tons,respectively.In summary,the new model based on multiple regression analysis is more effective for assessing recoverable tight oil resources and thus its scope of application is broader.

Key words: multiple regression, recoverable resource, resource assessment, tight oil, unconventional oil and gas, Permian Basin, North America

CLC Number:

TE155

Zhang Xinshun, Wang Hongjun, Ma Feng, Bian Congsheng, Wang Zhaoming. Method to assess recoverable tight oil based on multiple regression analysis[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2018, 39(6): 1323-1335.

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Method to assess recoverable tight oil based on multiple regression analysis

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