石油与天然气地质 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 280-286.doi: 10.11743/ogg20110217

• 石油与天然气地质 • 上一篇    下一篇

高成熟探区圈闭经济评价系统及其应用

  

  • 出版日期:2011-04-28 发布日期:2011-09-26

Economic evaluation system for traps in a highlyexplored area and its application

  • Online:2011-04-28 Published:2011-09-26

PDF (PC)

902

被引次数

9

摘要：

摘要：为了提高高城熟探区圈闭经济评价的水平，服务于油田的勘探决策，建立了高成熟探区圈闭经济评价系统。系统主要功能有：①根据建立典型油气圈闭参数数据库，应用人工神经网络方法进行非线性“类比”，确定圈闭的油藏类型、勘探开发和生产模式，模拟油气藏勘探开发全过程，开展圈闭定量经济评价，克服了传统评价方法的缺陷；②采用蒙特卡罗仿真估算，开展圈闭经济评价敏感因素和不确定性分析，实现圈闭勘探风险的量化研究；③应用最优化线性理论，完成圈闭勘探投资效益与勘探风险的优化分析，解决了过去圈闭经济评价中缺少风险分析和投资组合一体化评价的问题。该系统已经在胜利油田应用，胜利油田年钻预探井30余口，成功率在40%以上，效果良好。

关键词: 关键词：不确定性；组合优化；风险分析；高成熟探区, 圈闭经济评价

Abstract:

Abstract: To improve economic evaluation of traps in a highlyexplored area and serve for exploration decision of oilfield, an economic evaluation system for traps in a highlyexplored area was developed. The main functions of the system include the followings. ① The artificial neutral network method can be used to carry out nonlinear “analogy” on the available typical trap parameters database, so as to confirm trap types and the mode of exploration, development and production, to simulate the full process of oil/gas exploration and development, and to conduct quantitative economic evaluation of traps, which overcomes the disadvantages of traditional evaluation method; ② Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to carry out sensitive factor and uncertainty analysis of trap economic evaluation, and realize quantification of trap risks; ③ The optimal linearity theory can be used to perform optimization analysis of investment income and exploration risks, realizing integral evaluation of risk and portfolio. The system has been applied in Shengli oilfield, which drills over 30 exploration wells every year with a success rate of over 40%.