不同勘探程度矿权区块价值评估方法

doi:10.11743/ogg20220617

Abstract

Abstract:

As the reform of China’s oil and gas management system and mechanism gets deepening， the competitive transfer of oil and gas mineral rights has been promoted in an all-round manner. The transfer of exploration blocks has changed from the original ‘application first followed by registration according to law’ to the open competitive transfer of ‘bidding， auction and listing’. The acquisition of mineral rights is facing challenges such as fierce competition and difficulty in block evaluation and selection. How to seize the opportunity to valuate oil and gas blocks in a quick and effective manner， has become a hot topic among major oil companies that want to take the initiative in the process of mineral rights bidding. The study systematically reviews the current estimation methods of block value both at home and abroad， analyzes the applicable conditions and advantages and disadvantages of different methods， and puts forward the valuation methods suitable for blocks with diverse exploration maturity. In application， the newly-proposed methods are comparatively proved with the original ones. The results are of technical support to oil and gas mineral rights bidding across the world.

Key words: expected monetary value method, reserve value analogy method, comparable transaction price method, block value, block assessment, mineral rights bidding

CLC Number:

TE132.1

Chaoying Liu, Jun Li, Baohua Wang, Linjie Zhao. Valuation methods of mineral rights of blocks with diverse exploration maturity[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2022, 43(6): 1489-1496.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 17

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评估方法	适用范围	主要参数	精度
现金流量法	地质认识较清楚，需要开发方案，中-高勘探程度区	地质：资源量开发：开发概念设计等经济：成本、油气价格等	较高
预期货币价值法	有一定的地质认识，需要开发方案，中-高勘探程度区	地质：资源量、成功概率等开发：开发概念设计等经济：成本、油气价格等	较高
勘探开发全成本法	低勘探程度区，有初步地质认识	地质：地质参数、资源量等经济：储量发现成本历史数据等	一般
储量价值类比法	有初步地质认识，需储量类比区，中-低勘探程度区	地质：地质参数、资源量等经济：相似油藏储量价值等	一般
可比成交价格法	基于市场行情，有相似区块交易记录，低勘探程度区	地质：地质参数、资源量等经济：相似区块交易价格等	较低

概率分布	出让区块小于9 000 m 埋深断裂长度/km	类比区长度资源丰度/（10⁴ t·km^-1）	类比相似系数	地质资源量/ （10⁴t）	可采资源量/ （10⁴t）
P1	45.70	411.00	1.00	15 702.09	1 962.76
P10	40.15	399.22	0.98	13 656.23	1 707.03
P50	22.62	350.12	0.89	7 126.28	890.79
P90	12.74	307.06	0.82	3 718.73	464.84
P99	11.20	298.00	0.80	3 194.41	399.30

方案	不同基准收益率下EMV（亿元）
方案	0	5%	8%	10%	12%
现有技术	10.9	5.7	3.6	2.4	1.5
技术进步	17.1	11.5	8.7	6.7	5.2

区块	含油面积/km²	目的层埋深/m	地质储量/（10⁴t）	储量丰度/（10⁴t·km^-2）	单位储量价值（元·t^-1）
A	35	7 769	4 741	134	25
B	25	7 880	4 588	187	40
C	27	7 689	3 105	114	22
D	9	7 770	3 466	368	69
E	50	7 536	5 712	114	56

阶段油价/（美元·bbl^-1）	基准收益率/%	NPV/亿元	EMV/亿元
65	8	7.0	2.2
80	8	11.5	6.7

Valuation methods of mineral rights of blocks with diverse exploration maturity

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区块名称	可采资源量（油当量）/（10⁴t）	油气成藏概率	风险评估后的可采资源量/（10⁴t）	单位可采资源量成交价/（元·t^-1）	区块最终成交价格/亿元	公司内部评估价格/亿元	溢价倍数	可比成交价格法预测价格/亿元
A	1 500	0.9	1 350	13	1.8	2.9	0.63	—
B	987	0.8	789	61	4.9	2.1	2.34	—
C	800	0.5	400	9	0.3	0.1	2.45	—
S	891	0.8	713	57	—	4.1	—	9.5

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