关键词: 地质储量, 可采储量, 剩余可采储量, 变化趋势, 战略接替区

Abstract:

Chinese petroleum industry has been in its robust years with relatively stable reserves and production since 1980s.The cumulative discovered oil reserves in place and recoverable reserves have been increasing smoothly and steadily from 1984 to 2004.The mature oil regions in the east are still the main contributor to oil reserves growth,with annual growth rates of oil in place and recoverable reserves averaging at 460 million tons and 95 million tons respectively in 20 years.The annual average growth of oil in place in Northwest China and offshore area are 193 million tons,and 111million tons respectively,while the annual average growth of recoverable reserves are 39.6 million and 23.7million tons,respectively.In respect of the remaining reserves that have much larger influences on future economic development,China's remaining recoverable oil reserves are stable with an annual average growth of only 10 million tons in 20 years.The mature oil regions in the east have been in the late stage of production plateau,and their remaining recoverable oil reserves have begun to decline.However,recoverable oil reserves growth in Northwest China and offshore area have offset the decline in the mature oil regions in the east.The balance between the decline in the mature oil regions in the east and the growth in Northwest China and offshore area will determine the variation tendency of the national remaining recoverable reserves and production in the future.For the sake of maintaining the increasing trend of China's oil production,every means should be tried to bring all potentialities in the oil regions in the east into full play,and strategic succeeding regions both in NW China and deep water in South China Sea should further be developed.

Key words: oil in place, recoverable reserves, remaining recoverable reserves, variation tendency, strategic succeeding region