Abstract:

Probabilistic statistics method is the most effective way to estimate trapped petroleum resources.However,the precision and rationality of the estimates depend on the probability distributions of parameters used for resources calculation.Therefore,establishing the probability distributions of the resources parameters suitable for traps of different types in different areas and making the rational validation check to prove their reliability have become the key points of the application of the probabilistic method.Based on risk analysis of exploration,this paper presented a workflow to establish and check probability distribution of the trap resources parameters,and an analytical method for determining the uncertainty of corresponding parameters.Meanwhile,the mathematical hypothesis check method was used to be applied into the validation check of the trap resources parameter models.According to the geologic and mathematic characteristics of the resources parameters,a corresponding mathematical hypothesis test workflow was also established.Finally,a pre-exploration trap in the east of China was taken as an example for illustrating the workflow and the application process of the method.The results show that the method can effectively realize quantitative analysis of the resources parameters.And the calculation results match well with the post-drilling predicted reserves,validating the reliability and the rationality of this method.

Key words: uncertainty, validation test, probability distribution, resources calculation, exploration risk analysis