基于多元统计分析的油-源对比

doi:10.11743/ogg20220520

Abstract

Abstract:

Multivariate statistical analysis can comprehensively consider the interrelationship of multiple related parameters， and is of unique advantage in classification-based identification. It is thus an effective method for oil-source correlation with multiple suites of source rocks occurring simultaneously in a zone. However， no authors have conducted special research and analysis on the comparative application and applicability of diverse multivariate statistical methods to one case. There are multiple suites of source rocks developed in the Bodong Sag， Bohai Bay Basin， and the sources of oil and gas in different structures are extremely complex， which is the best case for oil-source correlation using multivariate statistical analysis. The comparison of principal component analysis （PCA）， Fisher linear discriminant analysis （LDA） and Bayes LDA in terms of application shows that PCA cannot be applied to distinguish source rocks at different horizons， so it cannot be used for oil-source correlation in the Bodong Sag. However， the models established by Fisher and Bayes LDA can do this effectively， though neither of them could accurately identify oil of mixed sources. Based on the classification probability obtained from the Bayes LDA model， a discriminant model suitable for the Bodong Sag is established with the discriminant criteria of the Bayes model optimized， and four oil familys are identified in the Bodong Sag， with oil family A， B and C are derived from the source rocks of the third member of the Oligocene Dongying Formation （Ed³）， the first to second member （Es^1-2） and the third member （Es³） of the Eocene Shahejie Formation， respectively， and oil family D from the source rocks of Ed³_{and Es^1-2.}

Key words: discriminant model, linear discriminant analysis （LDA）, multivariate statistical analysis, oil-source correlation, Bodong Sag, Bohai Bay Basin

CLC Number:

TE122.1

Xihao Guo, Fanghao Xu, Xiaobo Huang, Tao Jiang, Haoran Liang, Changzhi Li, Zhichao Li. Oil-source correlation based on multivariate statistical analysis： A case study of the Bodong Sag， Bohai Bay Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2022, 43(5): 1259-1270.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1

Table 1

Biomarker parameters of source rock samples from the Bodong Sag"

井号	深度/m	层位	Pr/Ph	ETR	$G a m C 30 H$	4-MSI	$T T C 30 H$	$C 19 T T C 23 T T$	$C 21 T T C 23 T T$	$G a m C 24 T e t$	$C 23 T T C 30 H$	$G a m C 31 H (S + R)$
LD28-A	2 920～2 930	Ed³	1.88	0.26	0.03	0.11	0.14	2.48	1.87	1.25	0.01	0.07
LD28-A	2 960～2 970	Ed³	1.89	0.21	0.04	0.10	0.09	0.53	1.22	1.95	0.01	0.11
LD34-A	2 850～2 860	Ed³	1.50	0.11	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.31	0.77	3.61	0.01	0.31
PL14-A	3 200～3 210	Ed³	1.06	0.25	0.06	0.09	0.07	0.60	0.80	2.33	0.01	0.20
PL14-A	3 400～3 410	Ed³	1.02	0.11	0.07	0.10	0.07	0.45	0.86	2.64	0.01	0.19
PL14-A	3 600～3 610	Ed³	0.84	0.12	0.09	0.12	0.12	0.55	1.01	2.03	0.02	0.24
PL14-A	3 700～3 715	Ed³	0.97	0.15	0.11	0.12	0.19	0.49	1.13	2.63	0.03	0.29
PL14-B	2 740～2 760	Ed³	1.62	0.11	0.07	0.11	0.07	0.53	0.89	2.51	0.01	0.20
PL14-B	2 760～2 780	Ed³	1.45	0.11	0.08	0.12	0.06	0.63	0.97	2.89	0.01	0.21
LD28-A	3 000～3 010	Es^1-2	1.34	0.32	0.07	0.13	0.40	0.38	0.99	1.80	0.07	0.19
LD34-A	2 930～2 940	Es^1-2	0.57	0.44	0.33	0.12	0.22	0.07	0.69	7.30	0.05	1.20
LD34-C	2 030～2 040	Es^1-2	1.25	0.41	0.31	0.16	0.23	0.17	1.03	15.96	0.04	1.81
LD34-C	2 080～2 090	Es^1-2	1.31	0.41	0.29	0.17	0.41	0.20	0.88	10.97	0.09	1.46
LD34-C	2 110～2 120	Es^1-2	0.99	0.59	0.33	0.14	0.44	0.11	0.89	11.69	0.08	0.95
LD34-C	2 140～2 150	Es^1-2	0.47	0.37	0.21	0.16	0.59	0.33	1.42	4.56	0.09	0.44
LK8-A	2 670～2 680	Es^1-2	0.52	0.56	0.23	0.18	1.08	0.10	0.88	2.71	0.19	0.78
LK9-A	2 170～2 180	Es^1-2	1.73	0.17	0.06	0.16	0.08	0.07	1.00	5.07	0.01	0.19
LK9-A	2 240～2 250	Es^1-2	0.94	0.59	0.25	0.15	0.65	0.09	0.71	5.39	0.14	0.83
PL3-A	2 410～2 420	Es^1-2	1.62	0.11	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.48	1.02	5.13	0.01	0.26
PL3-A	2 460～2 470	Es^1-2	1.43	0.12	0.14	0.11	0.06	0.32	0.91	4.66	0.01	0.38
PL9-A	2 630～2 640	Es^1-2	2.19	0.16	0.10	0.11	0.03	0.33	1.06	7.38	0.01	0.26
PL14-A	3 815～3 825	Es^1-2	1.23	0.28	0.09	0.09	0.34	0.35	1.18	2.52	0.06	0.26
PL14-A	3 888～3 891	Es^1-2	1.04	0.12	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.53	0.94	2.47	0.02	0.20
PL14-A	2 840～2 860	Es^1-2	0.96	0.15	0.12	0.15	0.13	0.28	0.96	3.68	0.03	0.35
LD34-B	2 200～2 210	Es³	1.52	0.45	0.21	0.17	0.33	0.15	0.96	7.23	0.06	0.53
LD34-B	2 250～2 260	Es³	1.71	0.48	0.21	0.23	0.37	0.30	1.11	6.43	0.06	0.55
LD34-B	2 350～2 360	Es³	1.30	0.39	0.12	0.14	0.25	0.31	0.87	4.39	0.04	0.22
LD34-B	2 370～2 380	Es³	1.39	0.34	0.17	0.15	0.29	0.13	0.87	5.54	0.06	0.34
LD34-C	2 180～2 190	Es³	0.70	0.48	0.21	0.18	1.00	0.15	0.76	2.98	0.26	0.50
LD34-C	2 200～2 210	Es³	1.59	0.22	0.16	0.09	1.25	0.16	0.81	1.91	0.34	0.42
PL9-A	2 830～2 840	Es³	0.61	0.51	0.18	0.17	0.48	0.08	0.81	2.74	0.13	0.61
PL25-A	1 653～1 656	Es³	0.21	0.56	0.14	0.19	1.02	0.27	0.42	1.27	0.20	0.29
PL25-A	1 887～1 890	Es³	0.23	0.61	0.13	0.28	1.20	0.03	0.50	1.28	0.26	0.30
PL25-A	1 974～1 977	Es³	0.27	0.59	0.11	0.14	0.73	0.02	0.44	1.47	0.16	0.35

Table 1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 2

Fig.5

Table 3

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

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方法判别	实测类别	预测类别计数/个			正确率/%
方法判别	实测类别	东三段	沙一段-沙二段	沙三段	分类	平均
Fisher 判别分析	东三段	9	0	0	100.0	85.3
	沙一段-沙二段	3	10	2	66.7
	沙三段	0	0	10	100.0
Bayes 判别分析	东三段	8	1	0	88.9	88.2
	沙一段-沙二段	1	12	2	80.0
	沙三段	0	0	10	100.0

井号	深度/m	层位	Fisher判别分析			Bayes判别分析							油族
井号	深度/m	层位	F₁	F₂	分类	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	概率1	概率2	概率3	分类	油族
LD28-A	2 530	Ng	2.22	0.28	3	29.87	35.37	38.27	0	0.05	0.95	3	C
LD32-A	2 388	Ng	-0.28	-0.89	1	12.42	12.57	10.35	0.42	0.52	0.06	2	D
LD32-A	2 662	Ng	0.90	-1.17	3	15.06	16.40	17.69	0.05	0.20	0.75	3	C
LD32-A	2 745	Ng	1.74	-0.80	3	17.64	20.81	23.84	0	0.04	0.95	3	C
LD32-A	2 917	Ed^2U-Ed¹	1.59	-0.49	3	16.11	19.60	21.81	0	0.10	0.90	3	C
LD32-B	2 792	Ed^2U-Ed¹	-1.70	-1.37	1	15.30	12.53	7.20	0.94	0.06	0	1	A
LD32-B	2 909	Ed^2U-Ed¹	-0.33	-1.68	1	21.33	19.96	18.67	0.74	0.21	0.06	1	A
LD34-A	2 417	Ed^2U-Ed¹	-0.55	-0.99	1	11.18	10.72	7.93	0.58	0.40	0.02	1	D
LD34-A	2 634	Ed³-Ed^2L	-2.55	1.16	2	10.42	10.67	-0.23	0.36	0.64	0	2	D
LD34-B	1 971	Ed^2U-Ed¹	5.04	-1.88	3	41.93	47.88	61.10	0	0	1.00	3	C
LD34-B	2 142	Ed³-Ed^2L	3.94	0.57	3	28.29	36.74	43.83	0	0	1.00	3	C
LD34-B	2 364	Es³	1.43	-0.21	3	20.08	23.75	25.18	0	0.19	0.81	3	C
LD34-C	2 131	Es^1-2	-0.40	-0.63	2	15.31	15.67	12.82	0.36	0.60	0.04	2	D
LD34-C	2 150	Es^1-2	-0.45	-0.40	2	14.32	15.02	11.74	0.29	0.68	0.03	2	D
LK8-A	1 845	Ng	-1.51	-1.26	1	10.94	8.64	3.66	0.90	0.10	0	1	A
LK8-A	1 963	Ng	-2.59	-1.46	1	5.80	1.62	-5.97	0.98	0.02	0	1	A
LK8-A	1 963	Ng	-2.46	-2.12	1	7.57	2.39	-4.00	0.99	0.01	0	1	A
LK9-A	1 292	Nm^L	-1.83	-0.87	1	7.32	5.26	-1.08	0.88	0.12	0	1	A
LK9-A	1 293～1 309	Nm^L	-2.57	-0.94	1	7.32	5.26	-1.08	0.88	0.12	0	1	A
LK9-A	1 308	Nm^L	-2.93	-1.04	1	4.94	0.99	-8.05	0.98	0.02	0	1	A
LK9-A	1 515	Ng	-3.27	-0.46	1	13.14	9.74	-0.97	0.97	0.03	0	1	A
LK9-A	2 211	Es^1-2	4.51	1.21	3	30.85	41.02	48.76	0	0	1.00	3	C
LK9-B	1 773	Ed²	-1.97	3.00	2	12.16	16.62	4.85	0.01	0.99	0	2	B
PL3-A	1 709	Ng	-1.11	0.38	2	11.62	12.68	6.61	0.22	0.78	0	2	B
PL3-A	2 234	Ed^2U-Ed¹	-0.56	0.60	2	16.44	18.64	13.73	0.08	0.91	0.01	2	B
PL3-A	2 256	Ed^2U-Ed¹	-1.21	0.72	2	17.07	18.63	11.85	0.15	0.85	0	2	B
PL9-A	2 455	Ed^2U-Ed¹	-1.82	-0.58	1	13.52	11.92	5.24	0.81	0.19	0	1	A
PL9-B	1 675～1 700	Ng	-3.53	-0.46	1	7.92	4.10	-7.29	0.98	0.02	0	1	A

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Oil-source correlation based on multivariate statistical analysis： A case study of the Bodong Sag， Bohai Bay Basin

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