油气预探目标评价优选决策方法

doi:10.11743/ogg20140418

石油与天然气地质 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 570-576.doi: 10.11743/ogg20140418

油气预探目标评价优选决策方法

闫相宾, 李娜, 蔡利学, 杨双, 李军, 马晓娟

中国石化石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083

收稿日期:2014-05-04 修回日期:2014-06-28 出版日期:2014-08-08 发布日期:2014-08-28
作者简介:闫相宾（1964-），男，博士、教授级高级工程师，石油与天然气地质学。E-mail：yxb1964.syky@sinopec.com。

Preliminary exploration prospect evaluation and screening method

Yan Xiangbin, Li Na, Cai Lixue, Yang Shuang, Li Jun, Ma Xiaojuan

Petroleum Exploration & Production Research Institute, SINOPEC, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2014-05-04 Revised:2014-06-28 Online:2014-08-08 Published:2014-08-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

预探目标是指部署油气预探井的一个圈闭或者是纵向上叠置的多个圈闭。不同地区、不同领域的预探目标评价优选决策是优化勘探投资、实现高效勘探关键所在。通常勘探家主要从预探目标的含油气性、资源规模、钻探工程工艺技术适应性和资源带动战略意义等因素决定预探目标。如何量化表征上述关键要素，实现不同地区、不同领域的预探目标统一评价优选决策是油气勘探面临技术难点。文中建立了基于风险分析技术的“风险分析-资源价值”模型和指标体系，实现了预探目标的统一评价优选决策。对优选上的预探目标用其风险后价值指标由大到小排序。预探目标的钻探决策是根据油公司投资规模限定的钻探目标数目求出风险后价值门槛值，并在“风险分析-资源价值”模型上优选位于风险后价值门槛值弧线右上方的目标优先钻探。

关键词: 风险后价值, 预探目标成功概率, 预期收益, 含油气概率, 预探目标, 勘探方法

Abstract:

Preliminary exploration prospect evaluation and screening in different areas and different exploration domain is the key to optimize exploration investment and to realize efficient exploration.Explorationists commonly select preliminary exploration targets according to such factors as petroleum-bearing property,petroleum resources,and technical and technological applicability of drilling engineering.Quantitative description of these factors and establishment of a set of unified evaluation and screening criteria are the technical challenges facing oil and gas exploration.Risk analysis-based ‘Risk Analysis-Resource Value’ model and relevant index system are established in this paper for unified evaluation and screening of preliminary exploration targets.The preferred preliminary exploration targets are ranked by the risked net va-lue.The preferred drilling targets in the 'Risk Analysis-Resource Value' model are located at the upper right of the threshold curve of risked net value which is plotted according to the number of drilling wells limited by investment.

Key words: Probability geology, risked value, prospect success rate, expect money value, preliminary exploration prospect, exploration method

中图分类号:

TE132.1

闫相宾,李娜,蔡利学,等. 油气预探目标评价优选决策方法[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2014, 35(4): 570-576. doi: 10.11743/ogg20140418 Yan Xiangbin,Li Na,Cai Lixue,et al. Preliminary exploration prospect evaluation and screening method[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2014, 35(4): 570-576. doi: 10.11743/ogg20140418

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油气预探目标评价优选决策方法

Preliminary exploration prospect evaluation and screening method

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