页岩气资源评价方法研究进展与发展方向

doi:10.11743/ogg20200514

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于资评方法的原理和评价思路，目前页岩气资评方法可划分为静态法、动态法和综合法三大类。静态法包括成因法、统计法和类比法3类，每类方法下又包括若干种具体评价方法。国外常用统计法和动态法开展页岩气可采资源量的计算，而国内主要采用统计法中的体积法和类比法开展页岩气地质资源量评估。文章系统阐述了各资评方法的适用性、优缺点和取得的主要进展。随着我国页岩气勘探开发进程的深入，静态法和动态法页岩气资源评价均取得了较大进展；综合法进展相对缓慢。文中指出，页岩气资源分级评价和空间分布预测、页岩气资评刻度区建设和大数据应用技术以及多方法综合应用的资评方法体系是未来页岩气资源评价发展的主要方向，下一步要尽快完善适合中国页岩气勘探现状的页岩气经济评价和生态环境评价方法体系。

关键词: 刻度区, 非均质性, 泥页岩, 页岩气, 资源评价方法, 页岩气勘探

Abstract:

Shale gas resource assessment has been carried out mostly with the static, dynamic and comprehensive approaches based on the principles it employs and the paths it explores.Of which, the static approach is composed of the genesis, statistics and analogy methods, with each being further divided into different and specific assessment procedures.The bulk procedure under the statistics method and the analogy method are adopted more often by the Chinese assessment teams during their estimation of shale gas resources in place in the country, while the statistics method and the dynamic approach are more frequently used by assessors in other countries during their calculation of recoverable shale gas resources.This paper provides a thorough review of the applicability and the advantages and disadvantages of as well as advances in all these assessment methods.It concludes that with the development of shale gas exploration and development in China, the static and dynamic approaches have been widely used and greatly improved but the comprehensive approach has been relatively overlooked.It also suggests that the grading and spatial distribution prediction of shale gas, establishment of calibration units, utilization of big data as well as set-up of a comprehensive assessment system based on all these methods are the main development directions for shale gas resource assessment, and that the next step for those doing the shale gas assessment work in China is to facilitate the bringing in of a more applicable and completed system for economic and ecological evaluations of shale gas exploration and development.

Key words: calibration unit, heterogeneity, mud shale, shale gas, resource assessment method, shale gas exploration

中图分类号:

TE155

宋振响,徐旭辉,王保华,等. 页岩气资源评价方法研究进展与发展方向[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2020, 41(5): 1038-1047. doi: 10.11743/ogg20200514 Zhenxiang Song,Xuhui Xu,Baohua Wang,et al. Advances in shale gas resource assessment methods and their future evolvement[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2020, 41(5): 1038-1047. doi: 10.11743/ogg20200514

图/表 4

图1

表1

表2

页岩气主要资评方法原理及优缺点对比"

方法体系	资评方法	基本原理及适用性	关键参数	优点	缺点
静态法	成因法	干酪根热降解生烃理论，碳质量守恒定律；适用于勘探全过程评价	泥页岩生烃潜力参数、生-排-滞留烃模式、页岩气存滞系数等	强调泥页岩生-排-滞留烃过程，资源潜力宏观把控	评价过程复杂，难以准确建立地史时期的生-排-滞留烃过程，存滞系数等关键参数难以准确预测
	统计法	基于数理统计学的方法及原理；用于中-高勘探程度区评价	泥页岩空间展布、含气性、勘探开发历程和储产量数据、单井EUR等	多用于储量和可采资源量的计算，参数取值客观、人为影响小，评价过程简单	未考虑到评价参数的非均质性，缺乏地质分析，不能给出资源分布
	类比法	相似性原则，已知推测未知；用于低勘探程度区评价	资评刻度区选取、资源丰度、含气量、类比参数体系及评价标准	评价思路、过程简单	类比过程复杂，类比标准及参数主观性强
动态法	物质平衡法	页岩气地层压力和产量之间物质平衡方程	产层压力、气体压缩因子、天然气产量等	充分考虑页岩气生产动态变化，适用于均质性较好、改造较弱地区	未充分考虑页岩气受保存条件影响大、产量变化快的特点
	递减曲线法	页岩气初期产量高、后期递减快和生产周期长的特征	初始产量、累计产量、生产周期、适合的递减模型	充分反映生产过程的动态变化，适用于生产井已进入下降期的地区	建立符合页岩气生产规律的递减模型困难，误差大
	数值模拟法	数理统计及计算机模拟	页岩气储层参数、大量页岩气生产数据等	考虑页岩气藏开发过程的气体渗流特征	建立符合地质实际的页岩气渗流模型困难
综合法	特尔菲法	综合分析、归纳	不同资评方法获取的结果	评价过程简单、快速，综合考虑多种资评方法结果及其可信度	难以准确界定不同方法的权重
综合法	专家系统法	专家地质认识与经验	专家地质认识与经验、以往资评结果	评价过程简单、快速，充分考虑专家认识和经验	专家评价主观性较强

表2

图2

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评价范围	评价时间	地质资源量/(10¹² m³)	可采资源量/(10¹² m³)	评价单位	主要评价方法
中国(主要地区)	2002年	—	15~30	美国科罗拉多矿业学院	类比法为主
中国(主要盆地)	2009年	30.7	10~20	中国石油勘探开发研究院	体积法、类比法为主
中国(四川、塔里木盆地)	2011年	144.5	36.1	美国能源信息署	类比法为主
中国	2011年	—	15.2	中国石油勘探开发研究院	体积法、类比法为主
中国	2012年6月	83.3	10~13	中国工程院	体积法、类比法为主
中国(不含青藏)	2012年11月	134.42	25.08	中国自然资源部	体积法、类比法为主
中国(主要盆地)	2013年	134.3	31.55	美国能源信息署	类比法为主
中国(不含青藏)	2017年10月	121.86	21.81	中国自然资源部	体积法、类比法为主

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