石油与天然气地质 ›› 1982, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (3): 223-230.doi: 10.11743/ogg19820304

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

关于油气资源远景预测系统的探讨

程学福, 丁泰木   

  1. 地质矿产部石油地质中心实验室
  • 收稿日期:1981-12-21 出版日期:1982-09-25 发布日期:2012-01-16

A PROGNOSTIC SYSTEM FOR OIL AND GAS POTENTIAL

Cheng Xuefu, Ding Taimu   

  1. Central Laboratory of Petroleum Geology, Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources
  • Received:1981-12-21 Online:1982-09-25 Published:2012-01-16

摘要:

本文拟就"如何合理地进行全国油气资源的远景预测"问题,初步探讨一下实施的途径。众所周知,油气资源的远景预测是普查勘探和开发的一个重要组成部分。总结我们的工作,可以这样说:油气资源的普查勘探和开发总是在某种预测评价的基础上规划并实施的,而普查勘探与开发的实践又回过来检验、修正我们原有的预测结论并作出新的更科学的预测。这一过程的反复进行,就推动了预测的理论和方法不断地发展和完善。

Abstract:

Prognostication of oil and gas potential serves as one of the bases in formulating an energy policy,planning the economic construction of a country,and drawing up a plan for exploration.In this paper,the relationship of interaction and alternating development between prognostication and exploration is analysed.The necessity of developing a prognostic system of oil and gas potential is elucidated in the light of the characteristics,the methods,and the reliability of the prognostication.As an overall object,the research on the prognostication of oil and gas potential is essentially a synthetical course of the knowledges of multiple disciplines,in which the synthestic methodology of interdisciplinary nature derived from"system theory", "information theory"and "cybernetics"et al.should be used,so that it can be characterised by"dynamical"and"trial and error"analysis.Based on system engineering,a three-dimensional structure of object-information-method and its dynamical scheme are proposed,together with a systematic developing approach and the optimization of the system using a changeable matrix.The purpose of this article is to seek for an optimal way to prognosticate oil and gas potential throughout China.