油价和成本对证实储量的影响

doi:10.11743/ogg20120421

石油与天然气地质 ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 646-649,654.doi: 10.11743/ogg20120421

油价和成本对证实储量的影响

许进进, 任玉林, 凡哲元, 张亚雄, 魏萍, 张玲, 郭鸣黎

中国石化石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083

收稿日期:2012-03-11 修回日期:2012-07-12 出版日期:2012-08-28 发布日期:2012-09-11
作者简介:许进进(1982-),男,高级工程师,资源评价。

Impacts of oil prices and operation costs on proved reserves reporting

Xu Jinjin, Ren Yulin, Fan Zheyuan, Zhang Yaxiong, Wei Ping, Zhang Ling, Guo Mingli

SINOPEC Exploration & Production Research Institute, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2012-03-11 Revised:2012-07-12 Online:2012-08-28 Published:2012-09-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

国内多个石油公司均在美国上市,SEC上市储量披露是一项必不可少的工作,其中证实储量最为人们关注。国际原油市场价格波动频繁、国内操作成本逐渐上升,一系列棘手的问题致使SEC上市储量自评估工作较为被动,因此亟待明确油价和成本这两个关键参数对证实储量的影响。以国内A油田为研究对象,将成本和油价按照10%的幅度进行递增,形成不同的油价、成本组合,利用储量评估软件ORGE进行计算研究,分析了油价和成本变化对证实储量的影响。研究表明,随着油价上升,证实储量会增大,但上升的速率逐渐减缓;随着成本的上升,证实储量会减小,但减小的幅度逐渐变小。油价和成本对证实储量的影响是非线性的,分为3个影响阶段:剧烈影响段、缓慢影响段和微弱影响段。

关键词: 油价, 成本, 敏感性分析, 证实储量, 储量评估

Abstract:

Several Chinese oil companies are listed on the U.S. stock market,their petroleum reserve disclosure by SEC proposed rules is indispensable,and the proved reserves is the most concerned.We face great challenges for SEC reserves disclosure because of crude price changing,operation costs rising and other factors,it is necessary to determine the impacts of oil price and operation costs on proved reserves reporting.Taking the A oilfield in China as an example,we obtained various combinations of oil price and operation costs by increasing price and cost at a rate of 10%.Based on calculation with ORGE software,we analyzed the impacts of changes of oil price and the cost on proved reserves reporting.The results show that proved reserves might increase as oil prices rise,but the increasing rate tends to decline gradually.The proved reserves might reduce as operating costs increase,but the decreasing rate also tends to decline progressively.The impacts of oil price and cost on proved reserves is nonlinear,and can be divided into three stages,including dramatic impact,moderate impact and weak impact stages.

Key words: oil price, operation cost, sensitivity analysis, proved reserve, reserve evaluation

中图分类号:

TE155

许进进,任玉林,凡哲元,等. 油价和成本对证实储量的影响[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2012, 33(4): 646-649,654. doi: 10.11743/ogg20120421 Xu Jinjin,Ren Yulin,Fan Zheyuan,et al. Impacts of oil prices and operation costs on proved reserves reporting[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2012, 33(4): 646-649,654. doi: 10.11743/ogg20120421

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油价和成本对证实储量的影响

Impacts of oil prices and operation costs on proved reserves reporting

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