圈闭资源量参数概率分布及有效性检验

doi:10.11743/ogg20140419

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

概率统计法是目前圈闭资源量计算的最有效方法，其计算结果的大小、精度与合理性受各资源量参数的概率分布所决定。因此，如何构建适合不同地区、不同领域圈闭的资源量参数概率分布，并通过合理的有效性检验以证明其可靠性，是概率统计法应用的关键。基于勘探风险分析思想，建立了圈闭资源量参数概率分布构建及检验流程，并给出了相应的资源量参数不确定性分析方法。其中，有针对性地提出将数学假设检验方法应用于圈闭资源量参数模型的有效性检验之中，并根据资源量参数的地学和数学特征，建立了相应数学假设检验流程。最后，以我国东部某预探圈闭为实例，阐述了上述流程和方法的应用过程。实例结果表明，利用上述方法可以有效地实现资源量参数概率分布的定量化分析，其资源量计算结果与该圈闭钻后预测储量规模基本吻合，验证了上述方法的可靠性与合理性。

关键词: 不确定性, 有效性检验, 概率分布, 资源量计算, 勘探风险分析

Abstract:

Probabilistic statistics method is the most effective way to estimate trapped petroleum resources.However,the precision and rationality of the estimates depend on the probability distributions of parameters used for resources calculation.Therefore,establishing the probability distributions of the resources parameters suitable for traps of different types in different areas and making the rational validation check to prove their reliability have become the key points of the application of the probabilistic method.Based on risk analysis of exploration,this paper presented a workflow to establish and check probability distribution of the trap resources parameters,and an analytical method for determining the uncertainty of corresponding parameters.Meanwhile,the mathematical hypothesis check method was used to be applied into the validation check of the trap resources parameter models.According to the geologic and mathematic characteristics of the resources parameters,a corresponding mathematical hypothesis test workflow was also established.Finally,a pre-exploration trap in the east of China was taken as an example for illustrating the workflow and the application process of the method.The results show that the method can effectively realize quantitative analysis of the resources parameters.And the calculation results match well with the post-drilling predicted reserves,validating the reliability and the rationality of this method.

Key words: uncertainty, validation test, probability distribution, resources calculation, exploration risk analysis

中图分类号:

TE155

黄学斌,李军,闫相宾,等. 圈闭资源量参数概率分布及有效性检验[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2014, 35(4): 577-584. doi: 10.11743/ogg20140419 Huang Xuebin,Li Jun,Yan Xiangbin,et al. Probability distribution of parameters for trap resources assessment and its validation[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2014, 35(4): 577-584. doi: 10.11743/ogg20140419

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