致密油藏储量升级潜力不确定性评价方法及应用

doi:10.11743/ogg20210320

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国陆相致密油藏储量升级评价面临着储层非均质性强、阶段地质认识不确定性大和静、动态评价结果差异明显等一系列难题，使用常规确定性评价方法存在一定局限性。为此，建立一套系统的储量升级潜力不确定性评价方法，重点实现3方面改进：①以不确定性储量评价方法代替传统确定性方法，定量地给出不同可靠程度下的可升级储量；②基于后验概率思想，实现静、动态方法相互校正和综合评价；③引入升级概率概念，基于概率论方法定量化评价储量升级可能性和对应升级规模。将上述方法应用于鄂尔多斯盆地A井区长8致密油控制储量升级评价，明确了其在不同油价和工程技术条件下的储量升级概率和升级规模。实际应用表明，该方法能够为中国致密油储量升级评价和目标优选提供有效技术支撑。

关键词: 储量升级规模, 储量升级概率, 不确定性评价方法, 后验概率分布, 致密油藏

Abstract:

Reserves upgrade potential assessment of continental tight oil reservoirs in China encounters a series of problems such as high reservoir heterogeneity, great uncertainties caused by limited geological understanding of certain stages, and marked differences between static and dynamic evaluation results.All these are difficult to be dealt with conventional deterministic methods.Therefore, a systematic non-determinstic reserves upgrade potential assessment method was proposed.The method is an improved version in terms of the following three aspects.Firstly, with uncertainties considered, the reserves with upgrading potential are quantitatively determined under diverse reliabilities.Secondly, a mutual correction and comprehensive evaluation of the static and dynamic methods is made possible by applying the posteriori probability theory.Thirdly, reserves upgrade probabilities and scales are quantitatively evaluated based on probability method by introducing the concept of upgrade probability.The reserves upgrade probability and scale under different oil prices and engineering technology conditions were clearly seen when applying the method to the possibility assessment of upgrading 'controlled reserves' to a higher reserves category for tight oil reservoirs in the Chang 8 Member of Well Block A, Ordos Basin.This shows that the method could be of effective technical support to tight oil reserves upgrade evaluation and exploration target optimization in China.

Key words: reserves upgrade scale, reserves upgrade probability, non-deterministic assessment method, posteriori probability distribution, tight oil reservoir

中图分类号:

TE155

李军. 致密油藏储量升级潜力不确定性评价方法及应用[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2021, 42(3): 755-764. doi: 10.11743/ogg20210320 Jun Li. Non-deterministic method for tight oil reserves upgrade potential assessment and its application[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2021, 42(3): 755-764. doi: 10.11743/ogg20210320

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产能分类	技术可采储量范围/t	生产井		储量		平均单井EUR/(10⁴t)
产能分类	技术可采储量范围/t	井数/口	比例/%	技术可采储量/t	比例/%	平均单井EUR/(10⁴t)
低产井	0~1 000	22	49	7 855	8	357
中产井	1 000~3 000	11	24	19 620	18	1 784
高产井	>3 000	12	27	79 245	74	6 604
合计		45	100	106 720	100	2 372

	井号	水平段长/m	初期月产/t	可采储量/t	千米水平段可采储量/t
A1井区	A1P30	1 000	352	6 247	6 247
	A1P20	1 088	221	3 014	2 770
	A1P32	535	231	1 595	2 981
	A1P15	800	106	1 137	1 421
	A1P28	650	46	287	442
A2井区	A2P10	1 042	9	240	230
	A2P23	988	28	449	454
	A2P25	1 001	64	2 548	2 545
	A2P1	653	51	650	995
	A2P5	960	16	237	247
	A2P4	1 000	41	389	389
	A2P35	1 001	30	203	203

井名	A2P10D	A2P23D	A2P25D	A107	ZT4	P10取值	P90取值
有效厚度/m	12.3	14.1	16.4	14.1	14.1	16	12
孔隙度/%	11.2	12.3	14.5	10	10.7	14	10
含油饱和度/%	42.1	51.2	53.2	46.8	41.5	53	40

	完井方式	压裂段数	压裂簇数/(簇·段^-1)	液量/(m·段^-1)	砂量/t	排量/(m·min^-1)	压裂改造体积/(10⁴ m²·段^-1)	压裂液
新技术	套管	20~25	4~6	1 000~1 500	300~500	10~14	20~40	滑溜水，伤害率 < 20%
原技术	裸眼/套管	8~10	单簇	150~250	30~70	2~4.5	2~6	瓜胶，伤害率29.8%

油价/美元	经济极限可采储量/t	升级概率
40	12 941	0.01
50	7 498	0.37
60	5 199	0.80
70	4 096	0.94
80	3 505	0.98
90	3 121	0.99
100	2 826	0.99