海外在执行勘探项目风险-价值综合评价方法

doi:10.11743/ogg20160621

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国油公司海外油气业务在取得规模发展的同时，多个勘探项目也累计有大批投资尚未回收，当前低油价形势下更是“雪上加霜”，开展海外勘探项目风险-价值综合评价方法研究对于中国油公司规避勘探投资风险和优化勘探布局具有重要意义。海外在执行勘探项目运行过程中存在一系列风险，其中内部风险包括地质风险和勘探技术风险等，外部风险包括资源国政治、安全和项目合同风险等。根据海外勘探资产特点，以地质资源潜力分析为基础，综合考虑项目运作过程中存在的内部和外部风险，提出适用于海外勘探项目的风险-价值综合评价方法，对公司在执行勘探项目进行综合评价，形成低风险低价值、低风险高价值、高风险低价值和高风险高价值4类组合，并提出针对性策略和建议，指导勘探业务布局的优化。该方法为实现项目内部-外部风险因素控制、资源规模增长和经济价值实现统一提供了强有力的指导，在优化勘探资产组合和业务布局等方面也取得了很好的应用效果。

关键词: 内部风险, 外部风险, 优化布局, 风险-价值评价, 海外勘探项目, 石油勘探战略

Abstract: Despite a great progress has been achieved in overseas business in recent years,Chinese oil companies have been facing problems in recovering their exploration investments.The situation has been exacerbated by falling oil price started in mid 2014.It seems that the companies are in an urgent need of a risk-value assessment method for their overseas exploration projects so as to avoid investment losses and improve exploration deployment.There are many risks in the operation of the existing exploration projects,including internal risks,namely geological risk and exploration technology risk,and external risks,like political risk,security risk in host country of the resources,and contract risk from the project itself.The risk-value assessment method proposed here focuses on the resource potential of the exploration projects concerned,with consideration of both the internal and external risks.Four types of project characteristics combinations,including low risk-low value projects,low risk-high value projects,high risk-low value projects and high risk-high value projects,are also proposed before putting forward a strategy and suggestion for optimizing exploration business.The merits of the method have been verified through applications in controlling project risks,adding reserves,and implementing economic targets.It is also proven useful in optimization of exploration assets and business deployment.

Key words: internal risk, external risk, portfolio optimization, risk-value assessment, overseas exploration project, petro-leum exploration strategy

中图分类号:

TE132.1

计智锋,李富恒,潘校华,等. 海外在执行勘探项目风险-价值综合评价方法[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2016, 37(6): 990-996. doi: 10.11743/ogg20160621 Ji Zhifeng,Li Fuheng,Pan Xiaohua,et al. Risk-value assessment of existing overseas exploration projects[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2016, 37(6): 990-996. doi: 10.11743/ogg20160621

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