石油与天然气地质 ›› 1996, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 213-216.doi: 10.11743/ogg19960308

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用翁氏族回理论预测中国天然气探明储量的增长趋势

任宏斌, 孔志平, 李东旭   

  1. 河北石油勘探开发科学研究院廊坊分院, 河北廊坊 102801
  • 收稿日期:1996-02-07 修回日期:1996-04-28 出版日期:1996-09-25 发布日期:2012-01-16

PREDICTING THE INCREASE OF CHINA'S PROVED GAS RESERVES BY USING "WENG'S CYCLE

Ren Hongbin, Kong Zhiping, Li Dongxu   

  1. Langfang Branch, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, CNPC, Langfang, Hebei
  • Received:1996-02-07 Revised:1996-04-28 Online:1996-09-25 Published:2012-01-16

PDF (PC)

901

被引次数

17

摘要：

翁氏生命旋回适用于对生命总量有限体系的描述和预测,其曲线形式与我国天然气累计探明储量的增长曲线一致。石油与天然气为非再生性矿产资源,能够用“翁氏族回”模型描述和预测,预测结果表明我国天然气储量增长高峰期在2011～2024年,最终可探明天然气总资源量为11.5×1012～23.0×1012m3.

关键词: 翁氏族回, 预测, 天然气, 探明储量

Abstract:

Weng's Life Cycle" is suitable for the description and prediction of the finite system of life amount, and its curve coincides to the increase curve of China's proved natural gas reserves."Weng's Cycle"could be used to describe and predict oil and gas reserves.As oil and gas are non-regenerated resources, the results indicates that the peak period of gas reserve increase will be 2011～2024 A.D., and the fina amount of proved gas resources will be 11.5 ×1012～23.0 × 1012m3.